**Updated** Guess the Quarterback
In statistics, an outlier is a piece of data within a data set that is numerically separate from the rest of the data…or something like that. A lot of times in sports we talk about fluke statistics, such as Brady Anderson’s 50 home run season or Kobe Bryant’s 81 point game. With this idea in mind, I thought it might be interesting to look at a specific elite player’s career and remove their best and worst seasons from their career statistics to see if the remaining years’ averages would still be considered elite. So, without further ado, here are the statistics of an elite quarterback in the NFL after removing his best and worst seasons:
Over six seasons: 16 games, 3,852 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and 13 interceptions
To give you some perspective, Kyle Orton of the Denver Broncos threw for 3,802 yards, 21 touchdowns and 12 interceptions during the 2009 season.
Orton wasn’t a bad quarterback last season, but his statistics can hardly be considered elite. So whose career averages are similar to Orton’s 2009 season after removing his best and worst seasons?
Scroll down to find out…
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That’s right, none other than New England Patriots’ quarterback Tom Brady.
| Year | YDs | TDs | INTs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2002 | 3,764 | 28 | 14 |
| 2003 | 3,620 | 23 | 12 |
| 2004 | 3,692 | 28 | 14 |
| 2005 | 4,110 | 26 | 14 |
| 2006 | 3,529 | 24 | 12 |
| 2009 | 4,398 | 28 | 13 |
| Average | 3,852 | 26 | 13 |
And the seasons that were removed:
| Year | YDs | TDs | INTs |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| 2001 | 2,843 | 18 | 12 |
| 2007 | 4,806 | 50 | 8 |
| 2008 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
I didn’t think it would be fair to include his rookie year when he barely played in the regular season and 2008 when he was hurt on the first drive of the season, so technically four seasons were removed.
Either way, it’s something to consider before he becomes one of the richest players in the NFL. I understand he has been incredible over his career, but it’s interesting to think that he is about to become one of the highest paid players in the NFL when the better part of his career is likely behind him. Does anyone realistically believe that he will lead the Patriots to four more Super Bowls over the next six to eight years that he has left? If not, why does he deserve the payday now?
**UPDATE** For those who are curious, Peyton Manning has averaged 4,183 passing yards, 29 touchdowns and 14 interceptions over his career after removing his rookie season in 1998 and his 49 touchdown season in 2004.
