With Junior Griffey’s retirement midway through the 2010 season, we are left with an interesting question: if baseball ended today, who would be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame?  I’d like to ignore the steroids issue for this conversation and simply try to see which players have had Hall of Fame careers up until today.  I realize this is a little pie-in-the-sky because the steroids issue has been the issue in baseball over the past couple of years, but maybe you can humor me for a few minutes.

So when it comes down to it, who has had a Hall of Fame career so far?  I don’t mean players who are on there way to Hall of Fame careers, I mean guys who could finish playing baseball today and eventually be inducted in Cooperstown.  I checked out a couple of the basic statistics that so many baseball writers use to build the foundation of their votes and I’ve come up with a list of eleven guarantees:

Derek Jeter, Alex Rodriguez, Ivan Rodriguez, Albert Pujols, Jim Thome, Omar Vizquel, Vladimir Guerrero, Manny Ramirez, Ichiro Suzuki, Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman.

Three other players just missed my list: Andy Pettitte, Chipper Jones and Jamie Moyer.

I think Moyer will miss out because his statistics are simply based on longevity, which hasn’t worked out yet for Bert Blyleven so why should it work for Moyer?

Pettitte is an interesting figure, as his career record is currently 240-137 and no pitcher who is 100-games over .500 in his career is sitting outside of Cooperstown.  Pettitte also owns the record for the most career postseason wins and that has to count for something.

Jones could potentially have made the list of 11 a list of 12, but injuries have really hurt the latter years of his career and he is still well short of two major Hall of Fame barometers (he’s currently 510 hits short of 3,000 and 64 home runs shy of 500).

The one thing that surprised me right away is that there were no starting pitchers on the list of 11 and the only relief pitchers are arguably the greatest closers of all time.  Again, this is not a list of people I think will make the Hall of Fame when their careers are eventually over; it’s who could make it if their careers ended today.  Things are looking good for C.C. Sabathia, Ryan Howard and Joe Mauer.  Heck, even Johnny Damon might reach 3,000 hits and begin the conversation of whether he is the worst player ever to reach that milestone.  Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright and Tim Lincecum might get their call one day too.  But as of right now, we’re left with only ten players who could expect to hear their names called at Cooperstown if baseball ended today.

Before yesterday’s moves, my team looked like this:

C: Buster Posey
1B: Adam Dunn
2B: Brandon Phillips
3B: Alex Rodriguez
SS: Hanley Ramirez
OF: Ichiro Suzuki
OF: Matt Holliday
OF: Jason Heyward
Util: Alfonso Soriano
Bench: Johnny Damon
Bench: Matt Wieters

SP: Adam Wainwright
SP: Ubaldo Jimenez
SP: Mat Latos
RP: Leo Nunez
RP: Kevin Gregg
P: Juan Gutierrez
P: Chad Qualls
P: R.A. Dickey
Bench: Ted Lilly
Bench: Barry Zito
Bench: Joe Blanton

A quick side note: I traded Stephen Drew, Francisco Liriano and Cole Hamels for Hanley Ramirez and Ted Lilly on May 16th and then Phil Hughes for Kevin Gregg on July 30th.

Yesterday was the beginning of the roster overhaul. Here’s how it broke down:

- Dropped Juan Gutierrez for Aaron Heilman after the former was placed on the disabled list.

- Dropped Chad Qualls for Hong-Chih Kuo

- Dropped Hong-Chih Kuo for J.A. Happ (Happ was available because he’s been hurt for so long)

- Dropped Joe Blanton for Carlos Zambrano (he’s returning to the starters role and I thought he might be worth the risk due to his high strikeout rate this year)

- Dropped Johnny Damon for Mike Lowell (another injured player who was still available, but should be getting some playing time thanks to the injury to Kevin Youkilis)

But then the real action started.  While I was making these moves, I was presented with the following trade proposal:

Derrek Lee and Tim Lincecum for Alex Rodriguez and Adam Dunn

While the guy in my league wouldn’t know this, I absolutely hate Derrek Lee in fantasy baseball.  I’ve had him once before and he just ruined my team, plus I always feel that his owners always think he is better than he is.  Look, I know he hit .335 with 46 HRs and 107 RBI in 2005 and I also know he’ll never do it again.  No thanks.

I countered with Alfonso Soriano for Tim Lincecum hoping that his glut of pitchers would allow him to do this (he also owns Roy Halladay, David Price, C.C. Sabathia and Matt Cain, to name a few).  My offer was firmly rebuffed, as expected.

His counter was an interesting one, offering me Carlos Pena and Tim Lincecum for Alex Rodriguez.  It was a pretty fair offer, but I had no interest in adding Pena’s .212 batting average despite his homerun numbers.  My other problem at this point was that if I traded Rodriguez (who hit his 600th career homerun as we were negotiating), I would be empty at third base, clearly not an ideal position.  It was at this time that I tried to see if Evan Longoria might be available.

I emailed the guy who had Longoria and asked him if he’d be interested in one of my pitchers, assuming he’d be most interested in Ubaldo Jimenez or Adam Wainwright.  While he’s been awesome this year, I was hoping that Jimenez would be the one he liked more, but alas, he wanted Wainwright.

While I thought it might come down to it, I wasn’t thrilled about trading Wainwright for Longoria.  The former was the #4 ranked player overall in our league and while I don’t really like to rely on rankings, it’s a tough thing to ignore when it’s a top-five player.  Luckily for me, my potential trading partner hinted that he might be interested in a combination of Mat Latos and a hitter for Longoria; now we’re getting closer.

I offered up Latos and either Heyward or Holliday, neither of which I really wanted to trade, but might be willing to give up for Longoria.  I naturally preferred to give up Heyward, he wanted Holliday, which I eventually balked at.  However, he decided to roll with the young guys and agreed to trade me Longoria for Latos and Heyward.

Separately, I was IMing with another guy in our league who was talking about how Jacoby Ellsbury was returning soon but that he was so frustrated with his injuries that he wanted him gone.  I offered him Barry Zito and the deal was accepted.  Just like that.  It couldn’t have been easier and I think it was a good move for both of us (which is my way of saying that it will help my team and I don’t care what happens to his team).

Back to the A-Rod deal.  Our negotiations kept going back and forth, with me looking for a closer in addition to Lincecum.  While I like Lincecum a lot, I didn’t think trading him straight up for Rodriguez was a good deal; luckily, my trading partner felt the same.  I told him I was looking for a closer and he offered me either Carlos Marmol, Huston Street or Bobby Jenks; I jumped at Marmol and proposed Marmol and Lincecum for Rodriguez.  At that point, we were close, but not quite there.

“How about adding Wieters?” he asked.  With Buster Posey playing most days and filling my catcher position, I was more than willing to give Wieters up.  And with that, we had agreed to exchange Alex Rodriguez and Matt Wieters for Tim Lincecum and Carlos Marmol.

With the other moves I made earlier in the day, my team now looks dramatically different than it did a few days ago:

C: Buster Posey
1B: Adam Dunn
2B: Brandon Phillips
3B: Evan Longoria (previously Alex Rodriguez)
SS: Hanley Ramirez
OF: Matt Holliday
OF: Ichiro Suzuki
OF: Jacoby Ellsbury (previously Jason Heyward)
UTIL: Alfonso Soriano
Bench: Mike Lowell (previously Johnny Damon)
Bench: Open (previously Matt Wieters)

SP: Adam Wainwright
SP: Ubaldo Jimenez
SP: Tim Lincecum (previously Mat Latos)
RP: Leo Nunez
RP: Kevin Gregg
P: Aaron Heilman (previously Juan Gutierrez)
P: Carlos Marmol (previously Chad Qualls)
P: R.A. Dickey
Bench: Ted Lilly
Bench: J.A Happ (previously Barry Zito)
Bench: Carlos Zambrano (previously Joe Blanton)

Will it win me a championship?  I sure hope so.  A pitching staff anchored by Wainwright, Jimenez and Lincecum seems liks it should be solid enough and with three legitimate closers,one more than most teams in the league, I should be able to jump in that category.  If this were a keeper league, obviously the moves would most likely not have happened, but since it’s only a one-year league, it’s much easier to roll the dice.

Things seem to already be moving, as the guy formerly in second place dropped three points last night and combined with my 1.5 point gain, I am not firmly in second place only eight points back of first.

While expectations for his on-field performance are surely to be monitored to see if he can live up to the hype, it’s Strasburg’s off-the-field value that may be at an all-time high.  And by off-the-field value, I mean his baseball card and memorabilia value.  Not only are companies like Topps doing all they can to make a quick dollar off of the hype, but even Major League Baseball is getting into it, coming out with a “Welcome to the Show” t-shirt, now available for $19.99.  And of course, let’s not forget his official jersey, now retailing for a paltry $259.99.

The ball he used for his first Major League pitch is potentially headed to Cooperstown, or the highest bidder if it goes that way.  The baseball card company Topps, which has some type of exclusive card deal with Strasburg, has already issued a press release that his rookie card is now available.  Oh, the rookie card isn’t enough for you?  Well then how about a signed baseball for $275.00?  If you’re not a signed-ball kind of guy or gal, then maybe the $275.00 autographed baseball cap is more to your liking.  Then again, if you think the $275.00 is just simply too much to pay for an autographed piece of memorabilia, then you might as well go on the cheaper side and grab the $250.00 autographed mini-helmet.

There are many people aware that the baseball card industry has struggled over the past couple of years and that signed memorabilia is really the way to invest…or is it collect?  According to CNBC’s Darren Rovell, you can now own a small pile of dirt from Strasburg’s start last night.  I’m sure that will certainly end up paying for the kids’ college tuition.

Look, I’m not here to rain on the Strasburg parade.  The kid had a fantastic debut and there is a ton to like for the future.  But you cannot possibly convince me that buying any of this stuff is a good investment.  I say this as someone who is a 28-year old bitter former-baseball card collector who has seen pretty much all of his cards become worthless over the years.  My most prized card is a 1991 Upper Deck Heroes card autographed by Hank Aaron.  I got it in a pack of cards that my mom bought me for Christmas.  When I first got the card, Beckett Baseball Card Monthly said it was worth $500.  Now I could barely sell it for $100.  And let’s not forget that Hank Aaron is one of the greatest players ever to play the game.

Look, I understand that Strasburg is going to be great.  Or at least we all think he is going to be great.  He could be great.  Well, we just don’t know.  Which is why you have to sell high on Strasburg now.  His value will never be as high as it is now.  Even some of the best pitchers in the game don’t get their autographs sold for $250.  You can get a Roy Halladay signed ball for $127.77 right now on eBay.  How about Tim Lincecum’s autograph for less than $120.00?  Heck, how about Nolan Ryan’s for $124.95!

Stephen Strasburg could go down as the greatest pitcher of all-time.  But in order to do that, we have to wait at least twenty years to see how his career turns out.  Add five more because he’ll surely be a first-ballot Hall of Famer and we’re already talking about a quarter of a century before you have the autograph of a Hall of Fame pitcher.  Comparing Strasburg’s current autograph price to that of the all-time strikeout leader lends me to believe that now is the best time to sell on Stephen Strasburg.

I was born and raised in New York City and am a die-hard Yankee fan.  I cringe watching highlights of the Mariners eliminating the Yankees in the 1995 playoffs and to this day refuse to acknowledge how good Edgar Martinez was during his playing days (did he even own a glove?).  I was 14 years old when Ken Griffey, Jr. led the Mariners over the Yankees in 1995, a series that saw the end of Don Mattingly’s storied career in the Bronx.  And yet, despite those brutal memories, Ken Griffey, Jr. remained my favorite (non-Yankee) baseball player.

“He played the game the right way.”  I’ve heard and read that phrase countless times when describing Griffey.  He was never accused of taking steroids, was never on any lists of suspected users of performance enhancing drugs and he never put himself in a situation where people said “boy, Griffey sure looks bigger this year than last.”  There are no side-by-side comparison pictures of Griffey that show him any larger than he used to be, except maybe in his midsection, which tends to get bigger as you get into your late-30s and early 40s.  His four most productive home run years were 1996, 1997, 1998 and 1999 when he hit 49, 56, 56, and 48 home runs, respectively, and yet we knew he was the one who did it right; he did it cleanly unlike our tainted stars Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Juan Gonzalez and Manny Ramirez.

I loved Griffey so much that I even had a Griffey for President ’96 poster hanging in my bedroom from 1996-2007 when I finally moved out of the house I grew up in.  I still have the poster and hope to hang it in my kid’s room some day.

Griffey won a Gold Glove every year during the 1990s.  Every year.  He won the AL MVP in 1997 after hitting .304 with 56 home runs, 147 RBI and 15 stolen bases.  The following season, Griffey hit .284 with 56 home runs, 146 RBI and 20 stolen bases and finished fourth behind Juan Gonzalez (.318/45/157), Nomar Garciaparra (.323/35/122) and Derek Jeter (.324/19/84 and 30 stolen bases).  He was a 13-time All-Star, won the All-Star Game MVP in 1992 when he was 23, and was a seven-time Silver Slugger.

Only four players in Major League Baseball history have hit more home runs than him (Bonds, Aaron, Ruth, and Mays) and he is 14th all-time in RBI.  And despite all of his accomplishments, his career will forever be mentioned with the phrase “imagine if he never got hurt.”  Griffey’s Cincinnati Reds years were his career downfall.  After hitting .271 with 40 home runs and 118 RBI, Griffey would never again play more than 145 games in a season.  His numerous injuries took such a toll on his body that Griffey only appeared in 206 games during the 2002, 2003 and 2004 seasons combined.  Everyone felt so bad for Griffey; with such a sweet swing and an amazing attitude towards the game, we wanted him to succeed so badly, except his body just simply wouldn’t let him do it.  He could have easily done what so many other stars in the game had and taken a new supplement or injection to get his body back, but he didn’t.  His integrity would be too strong to cheat the game…and that’s why we continue to praise him.

Despite going to tons of Yankee games over the years, I had never seen Ken Griffey, Jr. play in person until June 23, 2008 when he came to Yankee Stadium as a member of the visiting Cincinnati Reds.  I took a video on my digital camera throughout every at bat and I was able to witness in-person what I had on television so many times.  I leave you with that video:

Thank you, Ken Griffey, Jr.

The first update of MLB All-Star votes was announced today for the American League squad, led by Minnesota Twins’ catcher Joe Mauer with 1,138,286 votes to date.  While the expected fan favorites are in the lead, such as Derek Jeter at shortstop and Ichiro Suzuki in the outfield, the interesting surprise is how low the voting turnout has been for members of the Boston Red Socks.

I’m sure many will blame the lack of votes to the success of the Boston Celtics, who have been able to take a majority of the sports coverage in Boston away from the struggling start by the Red Socks.  The latter has picked it up as of late and is now 29-23; good enough for fourth in the American League East with the surprising start of the Toronto Blue Jays.  After early struggles by David Ortiz, the slugger has really turned it on and is no longer the uncomfortable embarrassment that he was in April.  Unfortunately for Big Papi, the fans haven’t taken their fair weather love to the Internet to vote for him.  As of today, Ortiz’s 235,986 votes put him a surprising fourth in voting for the American League designated hitter behind Vladimir Guerrero (725,752 votes), Hideki Matsui (465,615) and Ken Griffey, Jr. (323,564).

But Ortiz’s vote issues are hardly singular.  First baseman Kevin Youkilis, arguably the team’s best position player, is also fourth in voting as he trails Mark Teixeira, Justin Morneau and Miguel Cabrera.  Scrappy Dustin Pedroia currently has the best position, trailing only Robinson Cano for the starting nod; unfortunately, he trails by 323,567 votes.  Third baseman Adrian Beltre trails Evan Longoria, Alex Rodriguez and Michael Young, while Victor Martinez is looking up towards Mauer and Jorge Posada.  And finally, we look towards the outfield list, which shows the top 15 vote getters…and not a single Red Sock.

Obviously lots can change before the final votes are tallied, but at this point, Red Socks Nation is coming up small.

I have a friend who is from Maine and now lives in Boston.  He is a born and bred Red Socks fan and is a card-carrying member of Red Socks Nation.  While he loves the fact that the team is competitive every year now, he longs for the days that Fenway wasn’t filled with pink hats and visors worn by people who thought baseball was invented in 2004.  Like anyone from Boston should, he hates the Yankees, is thankful that Alex Rodriguez was never traded to the Socks and is 100% convinced that Curt Schilling’s bloody sock was actually colored with blood.

However, he admitted to me one day last month that he could not drink the 2010 Red Socks Kool-Aid.  He knew there were issues last year when someone named Jason Bay, who the team got in exchange for one of the franchise’s greatest sluggers ever in Manny Ramirez, was the team’s most feared hitter.  He knew that 5’7″ Dustin Pedroia could only take the team so far, even if he tried his hardest on every swing.  David Ortiz…well, we all know what happened to David Ortiz.  And even if he did have a fine year after June 1st, we can’t forget that the season starts in early April.

But 2010 was going to be different!  The statistical revolution says that you win baseball games by having great pitching and excellent defense.  No one cares if you win every game 2-1, as long as you win, right?  Who cares if the Yankees won the World Series in 2009 behind the most formidable lineup in Major League Baseball and had an ace in C.C. Sabathia followed by the always-wild A.J. Burnett and 37-year old Andy Pettitte?  My friend spoke to a number of his kool-aid drinking buddies who were absolutely convinced that the Red Socks would win at least 100 games this year.  Nevermind the fact that the Red Socks have not won 100 games in a season sine 1946; in case you’re wondering, they’ve won 98, 95, 86, 96, 95 and 95 in each season since baseball was invented in 2004.  So yes, the pitching and defensive upgrades were going to make the 2010 team the greatest in a decade.

So what did the Red Socks do?  They went out and got the best pitcher available, John Lackey, a workhorse who had a career ERA over 6.00 at Fenway.  But that was just because the Red Socks hitters were so good, right?  Yeah, that’s the reason.  It couldn’t possibly be because the stadium is built to hurt a pitcher like Lackey.  And this talk that the AL East is better than the AL West and he couldn’t possibly be as good pitching against the Yankees and Rays instead of the Mariners and Rangers is just hogwash.  Lackey was definitely worth $85 million!  He’s a guy who is going to throw 200 innings and yell at Tito every time he was going to take him out of the game.  Wait, Lackey only made 27 starts last season and threw 176.1 innings?  And the year before it was 24 and 163.1, respectively?  Boy, I wish we knew that before.  At least Beckett and Lester are still there.

But remember, it’s pitching and defense.  So adding Marco Scutaro, Mike Cameron and Adrien Beltre will clearly lead the Socks to the promised land.  Scutaro had a .789 OPS last season and is a great defender!  Just don’t ask if he’s had over 100 hits more than three times in his eight-year career before this one.  And the fact that he’s never won a Gold Glove is just because the writers never vote for the best fielder.  And a 37-year old Cameron in center field will definitely help since Jacoby Ellsbury is such a slouch there.  He’s definitely better in left this season even though he is 26-years old and is the center fielder of the future.  And wait, Cameron doesn’t have a high OBP?  And he strikes out at least 150 times each season?  Goodness, where does that fit in with everyone else?

Now let’s not forget Beltre.  This guy hit 48 home runs and drove in 121 runs while hitting .334 in 2004 with the Dodgers.  Just because he hasn’t hit more than 25 home runs, driven in more than 99 runs and hit above .276 since then doesn’t mean he can’t return to form at Fenway.  I mean, doesn’t the Green Monster help someone like Beltre?  It has to!

So let’s see.  We are now 16 games into the season and the Socks must be 16-0 with this defense and pitching scheme, right?  What’s that, they’re 6-10?  1-6 in the division?  Six games out of first place and five and a half out of the wildcard?  You’re right, it’s waaaay too early to look at those things.  We all know that games in August and September count double than the ones in April.

The Red Socks appear to be in a bit of a bind.  They want good defensive players, so they went out and got Beltre and Cameron, except that they don’t get on base all that often.  And while they may be screaming about defense, they have Victor Martinez behind the plate, one of the worst defensive catchers in the big leagues.  His pitcher’s ERA is over 5.00 with the Red Socks and he has thrown out three would-be base-stealers versus the 42 that he hasn’t been able to get out.

But all is not lost.  Adrian Gonzalez is on the way and he’ll be the offensive slugger that the team has been missing since Manny left.  Let’s just not look at the problem that Kevin Youkilis currently plays first base, we’ll just move him to third base.  Oh wait, that’s where Adrian Beltre plays.  And Mike Lowell, who is sitting on the bench collecting $12.5 million this season to do nothing so far.  Oops, almost forgot Victor Martinez, who also plays first base when he isn’t catching.  So I guess Gonzalez will DH.  But where does that leave Big Papi?  So let’s see: the Red Socks have Kevin Youkilis, Adrian Beltre, Mike Lowell, David Ortiz, Victor Martinez and Adrian Gonzalez for first base, third base and DH, when Martinez is not catching.  Maybe this is one of those problems you’d like to have?

It seems many Red Socks fans are convinced that the Padres will be agreeable to an Ortiz and Lowell for Gonzalez deal.  And maybe throw in Manny Delcarmen and Clay Buchholz, you know, to make it “fair.”  That would certainly make things easier.  Forget the fact that the Padres have absolutely no incentive to do the deal.  But their GM is an old Red Socks guy, he’ll definitely do what’s best for his former organization!

Look, I know we’re only 16 games in.  But it’s time for Red Socks Nation to admit there are many more problems than they thought.  And if they won’t, I’ll be here all season to remind them.

However, a clause in the contract allows the team to renegotiate the terms after ten years and it is taking full advantage of the loophole.  Pacers Sports and Entertainment President Jim Morris claims that if new terms cannot be agreed to by June 30th, the team’s fiscal year end, then it will begin looking for a new hometown.

The city’s Capital Improvement Board, which owns the facility and leases it to the team, is under a significant budget problem of its own.  The Board’s budget has already taken a significant hit and is ultimately responsible for any capital improvements to the building.  One would think that an 11-year old facility shouldn’t require too much work.

But the biggest kicker?  Even though the Indianapolis Capital Improvement Board owns the building and leases it to the Pacers, the team keeps all revenue from its basketball games…and all other events at the facility.

So now the team wants to keep all the revenue and move 100% of the costs of the facility to the CIB.  And if they refuse?  Well, maybe they will move the team to Seattle.  Or St. Louis.  Or Las Vegas, Buffalo, Vancouver, Baltimore, Kansas City, Columbus, Hartford, or Cincinnati.  How about Newark after the Nets move to Brooklyn?  Or maybe two teams in Oklahoma City.

What the Pacers are doing right now is exactly what any team does when it doesn’t want to pay any costs but keep all the revenue.  It is, in a word, despicable.

As published by Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com:

Despite feeling great making a headfirst slide into second base while playing against minor leaguers Wednesday, New York Mets shortstop Jose Reyes will open the season on the disabled list, a source familiar with the situation told ESPNNewYork.com.

Why do I find this so amazing?  Well, maybe this will answer your question:

That’s right, ESPNNewYork.com hasn’t even launched yet and they’re already breaking stories.  Well done, gentlemen!

***********************

So welcome to, what in my opinion will be, losing season # 18. I have hope for the future and I love all the preseason stories about the changing attitudes, but I think there are still too many question marks on the roster to believe they will have a winning record this season. Could there be a bit of a turn around? Maybe, but that depends on some of the players, and whether management deems it necessary to make a ton of moves by the break.

This years roster upsides are: an outfield with great potential, a solid defensive left side and middle infield, an older and maybe more reliable bullpen. This years downsides: A huge question mark at first, an injury prone catcher, a lack of legit power in the lineup, a rotation full of number 3 and 4 starters on other teams, and an old bullpen.

Here is my breakdown:
C – Doumit – Decent power for a switch hitting catcher when he is healthy. A likely trade candidate as the team opted not to move him to first base, and he is injury prone.
1B – Clement – Handing the job to this guy made me furious as I deemed Garret Jones, or Doumit better players to put here. Clement is an ex-prospect (he is getting old), who has hit for power in the minors, but has bad knees due to years of catching in Seattles farm system. It is my opinion that the Pirates as an organization are weak at first and that they are saving this spot for Pedro Alverez in an eventual position move.
2B – Iwamura – I liked this move of picking up Iwamura who lost his job in TB while injured last season. Good defensive player, who came cheap, can hit (contact), and bat leadoff.
SS – Cedeno – A frustrating player who seems to play well when motivated but then goes into a funk and loses interest. A good season out of him will be a .260 BA, and under 20 errors in the field.
3B – An. Laroche – a bigtime prospect in the Jason Bay deal, Laroche has a great glove at 3rd but has not yet found his power stroke at the plate making him totally useless at the dish.
LF- Milledge – I enjoy the stories about how he has changed his attitude and work ethic due to his friendship with Mccutchen, but after facing facts the man will never be better than a 20/20 player. Which would be great if they had more offensive production.
CF- Mccutchen – God, not really but the best player we have right now. 30/30 is his ceiling but more realistically he will probably be 20/30. His numbers would be so much better if he had a legit power hitter behind him in the lineup.
RF- Jones – A guy I think should be playing first, surprised a lot of people last year after being written off by the Twins. I hope he continues his productivity of 2009 but don’t think that will happen. He will platoon in this spot with Ryan Church, since he is a bit of a defensive liability, or if he goes into a slump.

*Notables – Ryan Church – added in free agency to play as the 4th outfielder, probably will end up keeping RF warm for the arrival of Jose Tabata either later this season or next year. Bobby Crosby – Brought in to push Ronny Cedeno, I think he will end this season playing more first base than short stop.

Pitching:

Paul Maholm – Starts the season hot but eventually cools down as he will play through injuries. Durability is an issue because he doesn’t miss games but his performance will slide due to injuries.
Zack Duke – Has really flourished under Joe Kerrigan, contact pitcher who can be tough when the defense behind him is playing well.
Charlie Morton – A nice piece we got from the Braves last year, forgotten in the minors as he was the third best pitcher behind Hanson, and Medlin. He has great stuff but needs to work on his command.
Ross Ohlendorf – Intelligent guy, with great command. An excellent innings eater wasted on a bad team.
Daniel Mccutchen – The favorite to win the 5th spot, a Ross Ohlendorf light. Not overpowering stuff, but good command of multiple pitches.

Bullpen:

Brendan Donnelly, Joel Hanrahan, Evan Meek, Javier Lopez, Octavio Dotel.

That bullpen is pretty much finalized (with the exception of Lopez). Lots of writers praised Joe Kerrigans work with Meek, and Hanrahan and hopefully they continue to improve. Their work combined with Donnelly and Dotel’s veteran experience give the Pirates a better bullpen than they have had in years. Joe Kerrigan is doing a great job with the pitching staff and hopefully they continue to improve.

Prospects:

Pedro Alverez – Will be up this season, probably in July. He usually starts out slow at the plate but will heat up as he can hit for both average and power. His fielding is suspect at 3rd so I assume he will be moved him to first base.
Jose Tabata – He may or may not be up late in the season (September), he is a great hitter and good fielder who has not yet developed his power. He is still pretty young (24 I think) so there isn’t a huge rush on him, but I think the organization may want to get Mccutchen, Alverez and him together.
Brad Lincoln – Good pitcher who is a year or two removed from Tommy John surgery. He maybe up this year depending on how the Daniel Mccutchen works out. As Lincoln is one of the better pitching prospects in Pittsburgh the organization usually opts to work other pitchers who they deem more major league ready (Vazquez, Hart, Mccutchen) so as not to rush him.

Barring the trades of Doumit, Maholm, Duke or Jones this season I think the Pirates can win 70 games but will still finish last if they do so. The Brewers and Cards will compete for the Central Division title, while the Cubs will linger slightly behind them. The Astros and Reds will finish further back in 4th and 5th but at least 6 to 8 games ahead of Pittsburgh. Once this team gets through a season with minimal to no trades you will see more improvement. The trades the previous years have hit morale hard and it is easy to see why the Pirates have been so bad in the second half of the season. Pittsburgh’s 3 major needs are a Solid hitting first and third baseman, and a better “ace” pitcher on the mound. They have other complimentary pieces but without these big three they will fail to get out of the cellar in the NL central any time soon.